Just two months in the past when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
